If 2024 was the year of elections, then what does that make 2025? The year of progress... Of repercussions... Or of change?

Your view will likely be decided by the way you lean politically. I’m hoping for the latter, though I can’t deny that I’m starting the new year with a sense of trepidation about what the next 12 months holds, both here and abroad.

Partly because of what’s happening in the US in four days. As soon as Trump sets foot in the White House, the world will become a more unpredictable – some would say dangerous – place.

We’ve seen more than enough of this man since he descended the golden escalator in 2015 to know the chaos he’ll inevitably bring – and yet the reaction to his victory in November was decidedly more muted than when he won the first time.

To understand why, you just need to look at the political environment he’s entering. In 2016, Trump’s victory, coming on the heels of Brexit, was a gut punch – and a wake-up call to everyone who refused to believe he could win. In 2024, it just feels more like part of a widespread trend.

In the last nine years, far-right politicians have surged in Holland, Austria and Argentina. In February, Germany will go to the polls with the AfD currently sitting at just shy of 20%. And in France in 2022, Marine Le Pen came worryingly close to the French presidency.

By the time our next general election comes around, the world could be a very different place.

You might assume these trends are simply the consequence of voters shifting to the right, but the opposite is true. Despite mainstream conservatives often claiming to speak “for the people”, studies have shown that voters overall have become more inclusive, not exclusive.

What is happening, though, is a shocking decline in trust in mainstream politicians and traditional media. In the UK, this is particularly severe. Trust in our so-called legacy media is 15% lower than in Germany or Italy, and just 9% of the public believe politicians tell the truth.

In this context, the repercussions of the Government’s recent decisions on compensation for WASPI women and the rise in employer NICs are particularly alarming.

While Labour made no explicit promise on WASPI compensation, it had supported the campaign and many victims were convinced they would deliver, yet they didn’t. Similarly, while the employer NICs rise doesn’t technically fall foul of their manifesto promises, it has sent business and consumer confidence plummeting.

It’s little wonder that just last week parliament debated a petition to hold an immediate general election just six months after the last one.

This is the consequence of a world in which every political decision is viewed through the lens of the next general election. If the new Government is seen to be breaking promises, it will add fuel to the fire and further erode fragile trust in our political institutions.

In a normal political environment, this would be damaging. But in a political environment rife with populists offering simple solutions to complex problems, the results could be catastrophic.